United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2026 to 8.5 per cent after the country's stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year.
The revised outlook follows the General Statistics Office's announcement that Vietnam's gross domestic product expanded by 8.18 per cent in the first six months of 2026, the highest growth rate in Southeast Asia and well above the Singaporean bank's earlier expectations.
According to UOB, the result reflects broad-based expansion across industry, construction, services and agriculture. Manufacturing remained the principal growth engine, supported by surging global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
The bank also highlighted Vietnam's strong foreign investment performance. Registered foreign direct investment reached USD 34.7 billion in the first half of the year, up 61 per cent from a year earlier, suggesting a healthy pipeline of future disbursements. UOB said this strengthened the prospect of 2026 becoming a record year for FDI inflows into Vietnam.
"Vietnam's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of disruptions stemming from tensions in the Middle East, providing a solid foundation for growth in the second half of 2026," the report said.
UOB's forecast is among the most optimistic issued by international institutions. On July 8, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released an updated outlook projecting Vietnam's economy to expand by 7.2 per cent this year, making it the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia.
Vietnam has set a target of achieving GDP growth of at least 10 per cent in 2026 while maintaining macroeconomic stability, containing inflation and safeguarding key economic balances. To meet that goal, the government is aiming for growth of 11.9 per cent in the second half of the year.
Despite the upbeat outlook, UOB cautioned that global trade developments remain a key risk. In particular, tariffs imposed by the United States under Section 301, which are expected to take effect from late July, could place additional pressure on global trade and weigh on Vietnam's growth momentum in the months ahead.
