Vietnam's Ministry of Health has proposed a series of measures aimed at encouraging people to marry and have children, including premarital education courses and expanded reproductive health support.
Under the proposal, men and women preparing for marriage would receive guidance on reproductive and sexual health, pregnancy, childbirth, parenting and household financial management.
The ministry also plans to conduct nationwide surveys to examine the factors influencing decisions on marriage, childbearing and preferred family size among couples and young people. The surveys are scheduled for 2027, 2029 and 2030, with the findings intended to support policies addressing persistently low fertility.
According to the Population Authority, low fertility remains the country's most pressing demographic challenge. Vietnam's total fertility rate stood at 1.93 children per woman in 2025, remaining below the replacement level and reflecting a continuing trend towards later marriage, delayed parenthood and smaller families.
Late marriage, delayed childbirth, having fewer children or choosing not to have children have become increasingly common, particularly in urban areas and provinces with low fertility rates. Existing policies encouraging couples to have two children remain limited, with many still in the planning or pilot stages and yet to produce significant or lasting results.
Currently, 10 provinces and cities have fertility rates below the national average: Hanoi, Khanh Hoa Province, Dong Nai Province, An Giang Province, Dong Thap Province, Vinh Long Province, Ca Mau Province, Can Tho City, Tay Ninh Province and Ho Chi Minh City.
According to the 2024-2074 Vietnam Population Projections, published by the General Statistics Office in 2025, Vietnam's population is expected to continue growing over the coming decades, although the pace of growth will gradually slow before peaking around 2059.
The report outlines three fertility scenarios for the 2024-2074 period. Under the low-fertility scenario of 1.45 children per woman, the population would increase by 2.5 per cent to 103.9 million. Under the medium scenario of 1.85 children per woman, it would grow by 12.7 per cent to 114.2 million. Under the high-fertility scenario of 2.01 children per woman, the population would rise by 17.0 per cent to 118.5 million.
If fertility falls to the low scenario, Vietnam's population would begin to decline from 2051.
Under the medium-fertility scenario, the average annual population growth rate is projected to reach 0.66 per cent during 2024-2029 before gradually slowing to zero growth in 2060. Population growth would turn negative from 2061 onwards.
Under the high-fertility scenario, the population would continue to grow modestly through 2074. Between 2069 and 2074, the average annual growth rate would be 0.05 per cent, equivalent to an increase of about 58,000 people a year.
