At a conference releasing the Vietnam Annual Economic Report 2014 in Hanoi on May 29 in Hanoi, VEPR Director Dr. Nguyen Duc Thanh said that the Vietnamese economy’s recovery remains tenuous.
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He went on to say that the report hypothesises two alternative scenarios for the country’s economic growth in 2014. The less optimistic scenario projects economic growth at 4.15% while the more sanguine puts it at 4.88%.
The VEPR’s estimates are much lower than the figures predicted by the National Financial Supervisory Commission early last month.
The Commission reported that GDP in 2014’s first quarter hit 4.96%, higher than the same period of the two previous years, and is likely to be maintained in the third quarter of this year. Therefore, it postulated that a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 2014 is within reach.
In April, the Asia Development Bank (ADB) also foresaw that Vietnam’s GDP will reach 5.6% in 2014.
Dr. Thanh said the sharp reduction in GDP is partially attributable to the ongoing complications in the East Sea after China’s illegal placement of Haiyang Shiyou-981 oil rig in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, threatening bilateral trade ties.
