International organisations recently assessed that Vietnam is not only maintaining strong momentum in 2025 but is also accumulating key conditions to move into a new growth cycle from 2026, with prospects viewed positively across the region.
In 2025, Vietnam remained among Asia’s fastest growing economies, posting GDP growth of 8.02 per cent. The result is seen as an important foundation for entering 2026 with stronger confidence.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office forecast Vietnam’s GDP could expand 7.6 per cent in 2026, the highest rate within the ASEAN+3 grouping, which includes the 10 ASEAN members together with China, Japan and South Korea.
Other institutions also issued favourable projections, including UOB at 7.5 per cent, HSBC at 6.7 per cent and the World Bank at 6.3 per cent.
According to AMRO, the positive outlook reflects Vietnam’s increasingly prominent role in regional supply chains, particularly in high tech manufacturing and exports, alongside stable domestic demand and relatively solid macroeconomic fundamentals.
Confidence among foreign businesses continues to strengthen. The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam reported that its Business Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 80 points, the highest level in seven years. About 88 per cent of surveyed European firms expressed optimism about Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2026 to 2030.
Analysing growth drivers, economist Le Xuan Nghia said that among the three pillars of labour, investment capital and science and technology, investment remains the decisive factor for Vietnam’s economy. Contributions from science and technology are still limited, while domestic enterprises have yet to build sufficient internal strength to create breakthroughs.
He emphasised the importance of foreign investment, especially in capital intensive sectors such as energy. With demand amounting to tens of billions of USD annually for infrastructure and energy transition, expanding FDI attraction is essential to sustain growth momentum.
To achieve double digit growth targets, he suggested that total social investment must rise well above the current threshold of roughly 33 to 33.7 per cent of GDP. In 2025, investment stood at about 32 per cent of GDP while growth reached 8 per cent, indicating limited room for further expansion without major policy changes.
He proposed three priorities: continue promoting FDI attraction, prioritise energy investment with sufficiently open mechanisms to draw international capital, and expand free trade zones to attract high quality FDI and encourage technology transfer.
He also recommended allowing domestic firms more appropriate access to overseas borrowing and reassessing the zero per cent USD deposit interest policy. Administrative restructuring at the two tier local government level, he noted, has affected the pace of public investment disbursement.
AMRO added that global demand for high tech products such as advanced electronics, semiconductors, digital services and artificial intelligence applications is creating significant momentum for highly open economies like Vietnam. Deeper participation in regional technology value chains is seen as a long term advantage.
In its update released in late January 2026, Fitch Ratings said stability and continuity in senior leadership could support reform progress and improve policy implementation efficiency.
However, Fitch also warned that ambitious growth targets may create pressure for rapid credit expansion, increasing leverage risks in an economy with high trade openness. The credit to GDP ratio has risen markedly in recent years. The State Bank of Vietnam’s credit growth target of about 15 per cent in 2026 is viewed as an effort to balance growth support with systemic risk control.
Risks from the global trade environment remain present. Fitch noted that Vietnam’s increasingly complex position in supply chains may lead to stricter scrutiny over origin and transshipment of goods. AMRO also highlighted uncertainties related to trade policies and international financial conditions.
Overall, international organisations believe Vietnam’s growth potential will depend on maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving the investment climate, enhancing the quality of capital inflows and raising productivity, forming the foundation for a more sustainable growth cycle from 2026 onward.
