In a recent report to the prime minister on electricity supplies for the 2026-2030 period and revisions to Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8), the Ministry of Industry and Trade has said Vietnam had been a net energy importer since 2015.
Net imports rose from 8.4 per cent of primary energy demand in 2015 to 43.9 per cent in 2025, equivalent to 53.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE). The share is forecast at 43.6 per cent, or about 83.3 million TOE, by 2030.
The ministry warned of a growing energy supply-demand imbalance, with net imports exceeding 40 per cent despite untapped domestic oil, gas and coal resources.
Power demand has risen unexpectedly in the north-central region and Red River Delta, prompting calls to review demand from data centres, AI facilities, EV charging and heating and cooling systems.
Power shortages possible from 2027
Electricity demand is rising rapidly while investment in generation and transmission projects has lagged.
Vietnam is expected to generate 354.4 billion kWh in 2026, up 9.7 per cent from 2025, while peak demand is forecast at 57,537 MW, up 6.4 per cent. In the north, peak demand is expected to rise 7.3 per cent to 30,248 MW.
According to the ministry, electricity supplies should remain broadly sufficient in 2026, but risks would increase from 2027 as many PDP8 projects remain behind schedule.
The national power capacity shortfall is forecast at 4,256 MW in 2027, rising to 8,309 MW in 2028, 13,348 MW in 2029 and 13,964 MW in 2030. The corresponding energy deficit could increase from 2.9 billion kWh in 2027 to 61.18 billion kWh by 2030.
The north faces even greater pressure, with its capacity shortfall forecast at 5,680 MW in 2027, rising to 14,081 MW in 2029 before easing to 13,026 MW in 2030. Its energy deficit could reach 44.65 billion kWh by 2030.
Delayed projects raise supply risks
The ministry attributed the risk largely to delays in generation and transmission projects.
More than three years after PDP8 was launched, projects accounting for only about 5 per cent of planned generation capacity have entered operation.
Another 9 per cent are under construction, 28 per cent have secured investors but have yet to break ground, and 12 per cent have investment approval but no investors selected. About 45 per cent have yet to receive investment approval.
Several major power projects risk missing their scheduled completion dates before 2030, with the ministry citing lengthy procedures for investment approval, investor selection and project implementation.
State utility EVN and its subsidiaries plan to complete 292 transmission projects during 2026-2030, including 78 500-kV and 214 220-kV projects, involving about 16,665 kilometres of transmission lines and 91,263 MVA of transformer capacity.
However, the ministry said EVN and its subsidiaries could carry out only about 28.6 per cent of the grid projects envisaged under PDP8.
Projects also face lengthy investment and land procedures, while LNG power projects struggle with financing, turbine supplies and power purchase agreements amid high and volatile import prices.
The ministry added that heavy investment needs were adding to financing pressure, while some PDP8 forecasts had not fully accounted for demand fluctuations, geopolitical risks and shifts in the primary energy mix.
