The VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) hit 1,784.49 at the close of 2025, gaining nearly 518 points from the beginning of the year or approximately 41 per cent. Photo courtesy of CafeF.
In the final trading session of the year, the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) rose 17.59 points to 1,784.49, up nearly 518 points from the start of the year, a gain of about 41 per cent.
Trading volume on the HoSE reached about 704.5 million shares, with a value of VND 22.35 trillion (about USD 0.9 billion). The exchange recorded 134 gainers, 185 decliners and 56 unchanged stocks.
On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index slipped 1.73 points to 248.77, with more than 59.1 million shares traded, worth VND 1.3 trillion (about USD 53 million). The UPCoM-Index edged up 0.22 points to 120.97, with liquidity of more than 40.4 million shares, equivalent to VND 0.65 trillion (about USD 26 million).
Over the course of 2025, the market experienced sharp swings. At one point, the VN-Index fell to around 1,094 points following a tariff shock, before rebounding strongly to set successive record highs and end the year up 517.71 points.
Shares in VIC of Vingroup and VHM of Vinhomes made the largest positive contributions to the VN-Index in 2025, while FPT of FPT Corporation, VCB of Vietcombank and DGC of Duc Giang Chemicals weighed on the index.
According to Maybank Investment Bank, data from 2012 to 2025 show the market typically posts positive returns in January, averaging about 4.4 per cent, before weakening in February and March. Large-cap stocks tend to track the VN-Index closely and perform strongly early in the year, while mid- and small-cap stocks often rally later, with higher volatility and risk. This suggests early 2026 opportunities may continue to favour market-leading large-cap stocks.
Vietcap Securities said the VN-Index could reach 2,033 points in 2026, an increase of about 17 per cent year on year, driven by sustained corporate profit growth and attractive valuations.
VPBankS Research, in its Investment outlook 2026 report, said macroeconomic stability is expected to improve, while the quality of bad debts in the banking system strengthened in the first nine months of 2025, sending positive signals for the market next year.
VPBankS forecasts the VN-Index at 2,087 points by the end of 2026, based on a target price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 times and expected earnings per share growth of 14.4 per cent year on year.
As of December 25, 2025, the VN-Index was trading at a P/E ratio of 15.8, about 16 per cent above its three-year average.
MB Securities (MBS), however, offered a more cautious view, noting that excluding Vingroup stocks, the market P/E falls to 13.5, compared with a 2025 average of 12.2. MBS said any gains excluding Vingroup’s influence would be driven mainly by core profit growth rather than valuation expansion.
The firm recommends a cautious P/E range of 12.5 to 13 for 2026, with a positive outlook for the first half of the year, when the VN-Index could reach 1,860 points.
MBS expects greater pressure in the second half of 2026 as new interest rate conditions affect market liquidity and some speculative capital shifts back to the real economy. Under this scenario, the VN-Index is projected to close 2026 in the range of 1,670 to 1,750 points, based on expected profit growth of 16 to 17 per cent for listed companies.
