Vietnam seafood exports are expected to reach USD 11 billion this year. Photo by VASEP.
The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said exports began to show signs of stagnation from the third quarter as US retaliatory tariffs took effect.
Even so, key product groups maintained strong momentum, laying the foundation for the full-year export target of USD 11 billion, equivalent to growth of 10 to 15 per cent compared with 2024.
According to VASEP, the US market is entering a period of volatility. Exports in the first 10 months rose to USD 1.66 billion, but the downward trend became clear from the third quarter due to tariff measures. Shipments of shrimp and pangasius, the two main items, both fell in September and October.
Growth prospects are coming from other markets. China remains a crucial anchor, generating more than USD 2 billion in the first 10 months, up 32 per cent. Demand for lobster, marine fish and live crab continues to rise toward the end of the year, offering significant room for expansion.
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) markets, particularly Canada, Australia and Japan, remain the fastest growing, showing strong advantages from tariff preferences. In the first 10 months, Europe spent nearly USD 1 billion on Vietnamese seafood. Exports to South Korea increased by double digits in the same period, reaching USD 725 million.
Shrimp remains the leading export, earning more than USD 3.9 billion in the 10-month period. Pangasius ranks second with about USD 1.8 billion. Tuna continues to face pressure, with export value falling 4 per cent year on year.
Looking ahead to 2026, VASEP expects significant challenges due to continued retaliatory tariffs, the US Marine Mammal Protection Act and the possibility that the EU will maintain its IUU yellow card. Competitive pressure from India, Ecuador and Indonesia is also rising.
Agribank Securities (Agriseco) noted that Vietnamese shrimp prices remain higher than those from Ecuador, India and Indonesia, reducing competitiveness and limiting market flexibility. High-price markets such as the US, Japan, South Korea and the EU demand stricter quality and consistency.
For the US market, the reduction of retaliatory tariffs to 20 per cent is a positive signal, as the rate is not far above Ecuador’s 15 per cent or Indonesia’s 19 per cent and compares more favourably with India, according to Agriseco. However, anti-dumping investigations remain the biggest risk.
Profit margins for exporters shipping to the US have already been hit by retaliatory tariffs. Vasep warned that if anti-dumping duties of 35 per cent remain in place after the final ruling in December 2025, Vietnamese exporters will face even greater pressure.
