The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (Vicofa), warned that global oversupply, rising production costs, logistics expenses and financial pressures were creating major challenges for exporters and coffee growers.
Export volumes rise as prices tumble
According to Vicofa, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange dropped from around USD 4,100 per tonne in January to between USD 3,300 and USD 3,500 per tonne in April. On average, Robusta prices in the first four months of the year fell 32 per cent compared with the same period in 2025.
Arabica prices on the New York exchange also declined significantly, sliding from 370 US cents per pound at the start of the year to around 279-305 US cents per pound in April, down 14 per cent year on year.
The decline quickly affected Vietnam’s domestic market. Domestic Robusta prices fell from around VND 102,000 per kilogram at the beginning of the year to VND 85,500-89,200 per kilogram in April and have continued trending downward. Current prices are 24 per cent lower than the same period last year.
Domestic Arabica prices also fell roughly 24 per cent to between VND 124,000 and VND 129,500 per kilogram.
Sharp falls in coffee prices have dragged down Vietnam's coffee export earnings in the first four months of the year (Photo: Huan Tran).
Despite the price slump, Vietnam’s coffee exports continued growing strongly during the first four months of 2026. The country exported around 799,000 tonnes of coffee worth USD 3.7 billion, up 16 per cent in volume but down 5 per cent in value compared with the same period last year.
Exports of raw coffee beans reached nearly 733,900 tonnes with revenue of around USD 3.1 billion, rising 10 per cent in volume while declining 13 per cent in value. The figures highlighted how falling prices were eroding export earnings across the sector.
By contrast, processed coffee products continued posting positive growth. Exports of roasted, instant and blended coffee reached around 65,100 tonnes, generating approximately USD 600 million, up 17 per cent year on year.
Under conversion standards used by the International Coffee Organisation, processed coffee exports were equivalent to roughly 106,000 tonnes of green coffee beans, accounting for 13 per cent of export volume but contributing 16 per cent of total export revenue.
Besides pressure on selling prices, businesses and coffee growers are also facing other risks, including sharply rising fertiliser and logistics costs (Photo: Huan Tran).
Growth targets under pressure
Bach Thanh Tuan, vice chairman of Vicofa, said the downward price trend was likely to continue in coming months as global supply expanded.
Global coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year is forecast to reach a record 180 million bags, nearly 8 million bags higher than the previous season.
Most of the increase is expected to come from Brazil’s Robusta production, while global consumption demand has shown only limited growth in recent seasons, increasing the risk of oversupply.
Tuan said tensions in the Middle East could provide short term support for prices, but average green coffee prices this year were still likely to decline by 20-30 per cent compared with 2025.
Vicofa had earlier forecast that domestic coffee prices could remain around VND 80,000 per kilogram through mid year before falling further later in 2026.
“Besides pressure from falling prices, exporters and coffee growers are facing multiple risks,” Tuan said.
“Fertiliser prices are increasing production costs, while exporters risk double losses if they lock futures prices at the wrong time. Logistics costs also remain high.”
Vicofa noted that Vietnam’s coffee exports during the second half of the year are typically lower than in the first half, making the sector’s goal of achieving double digit export revenue growth in 2026 increasingly difficult.
To reduce negative impacts, the association said the coffee industry needed to shift its focus from increasing output to raising product value.
Vicofa proposed boosting exports of high quality green coffee certified under sustainable and environmentally friendly standards while increasing the share of roasted, instant and blended coffee products, which generate higher added value and could offset falling revenues from raw beans.
The association also advised farmers to carefully consider stockpiling coffee as Indonesia and Brazil enter new harvest seasons that could place further downward pressure on prices.
For exporters, Vicofa called for stronger cooperation to help stabilise market prices and avoid uncontrolled competition.
The association also urged the government to expand trade promotion efforts in potential markets including China, Russia, South Korea, Algeria and Northern European speciality and organic coffee markets.
In addition, it recommended strengthening connections between Vietnamese businesses and major retail chains in Asia and Europe, including Aeon, Lotte Mart, Aldi and Lidl, to expand export opportunities for processed coffee products.
Vicofa also called for more flexible cash payment regulations for coffee purchases in remote areas and faster issuance of certificates of origin to avoid delays in customs clearance.
