Mitt Romney's future hangs in the balance. In one week's time he could either be restored as the frontrunner in the Republican presidential race or be left staring into a political abyss.
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| Republican presidential candidate, Mitt Romney shakes hands with a 95 year-old WWII veteran during a town hall meeting in Shelby Township, Michigan. (AFP Photo/Bill Pugliano) |
Up for grabs on February 28 are Michigan, where Romney was born and his father was governor, and Arizona, another supposed Romney stronghold where a significant proportion of the electorate shares his minority Mormon faith.
Both states were considered shoo-ins for Romney until a short time ago, but opinion polls showed Santorum surge ahead in Michigan last week and he is now within striking distance in Arizona.
If Romney were to lose either it would be a huge blow going into "Super Tuesday" on March 6, when 10 states vote simultaneously in a potentially decisive night in the battle to see who will take on President Barack Obama in the November general election.
"This week is very important," Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, told AFP as Romney geared up for a crucial debate on Wednesday, followed by a major speech in Detroit on Friday.
"If he were to lose Michigan, the story will be he can't even win the state where he was born and grew up and where his father was governor. On the other hand, if he wins Michigan he is the comeback kid."
Employing the same tactic he used to good effect in Iowa and Florida to see off strong challenges from former House speaker Newt Gingrich, Romney has launched a barrage of vitriolic attack ads against his chief opponent.
In one TV spot that began airing in Michigan last Friday, he says the nation is "drowning" in debt and portrays Santorum as a Washington insider who supported billions of dollars of funding to pet projects as senator.
A televised debate on Wednesday night in Arizona, followed by a major rally on Friday at Ford Field, home to the Detroit Lions American football team, provide Romney with two big stages to try to turn things around.
His ad campaign already appeared to be having some success in Michigan as the latest polling data Tuesday showed the protagonists in a statistical tie.
But a new CNN/TIME survey in Arizona showed Santorum slashing Romney's double-digit lead there to just four percentage points, within the margin of error.
Campaigning at a manufacturing plant in Shelby Township, a Detroit suburb, Romney rattled off his usual message that only he has the business acumen to turn around a US economy suffering from Obama's failed policies.
But after hearing him wax lyrical about growing up in Michigan, the crowd of about 500 people were more interested in quizzing him about social issues that Santorum has put at the forefront of his campaign, such as abortion.
Initially "pro-choice," Romney switched to a "pro-life" stance after being elected governor of liberal Massachusetts, declaring that the debate over stem cell research had convinced him of the "sanctity of life."
On Tuesday, he assured the crowd that he was 100 percent pro-life and his answers, especially on abortion, were enough to satisfy Feleiteau Epley, 58. "It's the most important issue. If they're not that (pro-life), I'm not going to vote for them," she said. "My conscience won't let me."
Nick Kovasity, 73, and his wife Jane, 68, came into the rally undecided and left feeling better about Romney, but still unsure.
"I got some clearer understanding of him, but I'm not 100 percent," Nick Kovasity said. "I have much more of a feeling of sincerity from him than before."
Santorum, whose trio of victories on February 7 in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado catapulted him into the lead in the primary race, was campaigning on Tuesday in Arizona.
The staunch Catholic has no problem proving his conservative credentials, but he must overcome stubborn doubts about his electability in a general election, where his moralizing could turn off many independent voters.
Charles Franklin, co-founder of pollster.com and a professor at Marquette University Law School, said Republican grandees were still largely behind Romney but acknowledged that they were growing nervous.
"I think the establishment has reason to worry about whether Romney can win the nomination or not, at the very least that he might be damaged in winning the nomination," Franklin told AFP.
The flagging Gingrich must win a tight contest in his home state of Georgia on Super Tuesday to keep his campaign alive, while Texas congressman Ron Paul is plugging away and building support for his libertarian wing of the party.
