In its latest macroeconomic report, Looking ahead at 2026, the investment firm said Vietnam’s economy expanded by 8 per cent in 2025 and was expected to maintain solid momentum this year.
“The government expects GDP growth to accelerate to 10 per cent in 2026, and we also see very strong growth potential, driven by soaring infrastructure spending, resilient exports and modest consumption recovery,” the report said.
Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital, said growth in 2025 was significantly boosted by an 80 per cent surge in exports of laptops and other high-tech products to the US, as well as a 42 per cent increase in Chinese and Indian tourist arrivals, which helped mask weaker domestic consumption.
This year, consumption and export growth are expected to normalise, largely offsetting each other, while the lagged impact of a sharp rise in infrastructure spending in 2025 is expected to support growth in 2026.
“The three main dynamics we expect to drive GDP growth in 2026 are a modest recovery in consumption, the infrastructure-real estate growth nexus, and resilient exports to the US,” Kokalari said.
Under its base-case scenario, VinaCapital forecasts GDP growth of around 8 per cent in 2026. In a more positive scenario, growth could reach 10 per cent, supported by ample policy space that would allow the government to deploy additional growth-supporting measures if needed.
The firm expects domestic consumption to return to more normal growth levels by mid-2026, though not a boom. By that point, household savings rates will have remained elevated for nearly three years, allowing families to rebuild a substantial portion of their pre-pandemic savings.
Household incomes have grown by about 6-7 per cent annually over the past two years, while both stock market and real estate prices rose by more than 30 per cent in 2025, strengthening the foundation for consumer spending.
However, VinaCapital said the government’s ambitious 2026 growth target would require stronger consumption growth. While several measures have already been introduced to support demand, there remains scope for further action.
Recent policies include the extension and expansion of a value-added tax reduction, a modest cut in personal income taxes, and partial easing of new taxes on household businesses that had weighed on consumer sentiment. While these measures are expected to support spending, their direct contribution to GDP growth is estimated at less than 0.5 percentage points.
Infrastructure investment is expected to be another key driver. Infrastructure disbursement rose by about 40 per cent in 2025, and VinaCapital forecasts a further 20-30 per cent increase this year.
“We see a nexus connecting infrastructure, feeding into real estate, and ultimately boosting consumption,” Kokalari said, adding that higher infrastructure spending could lift GDP growth in a manner similar to China’s post-global financial crisis stimulus. Government debt remains well below 40 per cent of GDP, providing room for further investment.
Regulatory reforms are also expected to unlock a surge in real estate supply. Pending changes related to land clearance and compensation for rezoned residential land could revive up to 80 per cent of previously stalled projects, turning them into shovel-ready developments capable of delivering an immediate boost to growth.
Exports, particularly to the US, are expected to remain resilient in 2026. Vietnam’s exports to the US rose by 28 per cent in 2025, generating a trade surplus equivalent to about 4 per cent of GDP. Despite the imposition of a 20 per cent reciprocal tariff by the Trump administration in August, shipments have remained strong, partly due to exemptions for products such as electronics.
As long as tariff differentials remain within about 10 percentage points, Vietnam’s exports should stay competitive thanks to lower labour costs and other structural advantages. Foreign direct investment inflows therefore remained robust, rising by 9 per cent in 2025 to around 5 per cent of GDP.
VinaCapital expects US demand to stay firm in 2026, supported by strong consumption among upper middle-income households and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies ahead of the US mid-term elections. It also downplayed risks from potential transhipment tariffs.
Key downside risks include a possible US recession, geopolitical shocks, a yen carry trade unwind, and a sharp rise in domestic interest rates.
Other international financial institutions have also expressed optimism about Vietnam’s 2026 outlook. UOB forecasts GDP growth of about 7.5 per cent, while Standard Chartered expects 7.2 per cent, citing competitive manufacturing, resilient exports, sustained foreign investment and improving domestic demand.
