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Singapore’s United Overseas Bank (UOB) has lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5 per cent from 6.9 per cent, citing strong exports and resilient domestic activity despite tariff risks.
UOB’s research unit said Vietnam’s GDP expanded 7.52 per cent in the first half from a year earlier, the fastest January-June pace since 2011. Growth was driven by a 14 per cent surge in exports, helped by improved sentiment after US President Donald Trump temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs to 10 per cent for 90 days.
Tariff uncertainties eased in the second half after the United States fixed country-specific rates from August 1, with Vietnam’s levy set at 20 per cent. UOB expects exports to grow about 10 per cent in 2025, down from 14 per cent in 2024.
Other indicators signalled momentum. The manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.4 in July, ending three months of contraction, while industrial output rose 9 per cent. Realised FDI reached USD 13.6 billion by July, up from USD 12.6 billion a year earlier, with full-year inflows seen surpassing USD 20 billion compared with USD 25.4 billion in 2024.
In August, the government announced a USD 48 billion infrastructure plan covering 250 projects. Of these, 129 projects worth USD 18 billion will be state-financed, while 121 projects valued at USD 30.5 billion will draw on other sources, including foreign investors.
For 2026, UOB kept its forecast at 7 per cent. The government is targeting GDP growth of 8.3-8.5 per cent this year. Analysts said exchange rate pressures would limit the central bank’s room to cut rates, expecting the refinancing rate to remain at 4.5 per cent.
On the currency, UOB forecast the dong at 26,300 per USD in Q4 2025, 26,200 in Q1 2026 and 26,000 by Q3 2026.
