In a report released on July 8 by its Global Economics & Market Research Unit, the Singapore-based bank noted that Vietnam’s real GDP grew by 7.96 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. This figure surpassed Bloomberg’s forecast of 6.85 per cent, UOB’s own projection of 6.1 per cent, and the revised growth figure of 7.05 per cent in the first quarter.
For the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 7.52 per cent year-on-year, marking the highest H1 growth rate since official data became available in 2011.
The strong performance was largely attributed to a surge in export activity during the 90-day period in which the United States temporarily replaced reciprocal tariffs with a basic 10 per cent rate.
Vietnam’s export turnover reached USD 219 billion in the first half, up 14.4 per cent year-on-year, while imports rose by 17.9 per cent to USD 212 billion. These figures already approach the full-year growth levels recorded in 2024.
However, Vietnam’s manufacturing sector continues to face headwinds. The country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has remained below the 50-point threshold in six of the past seven months, reflecting ongoing challenges such as declining new orders. According to S&P Global, export orders in June fell at the steepest rate since September 2021, mirroring the drop seen in May 2023.
Despite this, UOB believes the worst may be over for Vietnam’s export sector, especially amid recent positive developments in trade negotiations with the US. While tariffs remain a key barrier, UOB has adjusted its forecast for Vietnam’s exports to the US, now projecting a 5 per cent increase in 2025, a significant upgrade from the previously expected 20 per cent decline.
For non-US markets, UOB expects exports to grow by 10 per cent, close to the 11.3 per cent increase seen in 2024. Overall, Vietnam’s total exports are projected to grow by 8.5 per cent in 2025, compared to 14 per cent last year.
Factoring in improved export outlooks, manufacturing activity, and foreign direct investment inflows, UOB estimates that Vietnam’s GDP will grow by 6.9 per cent in 2025, 0.9 percentage points higher than its earlier baseline forecast.
Regarding monetary policy, UOB said that robust economic performance may reduce the need for further easing. The bank expects the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain its current policy stance, keeping the refinancing rate at 4.5 per cent.
