Nguyen Van Huong, head of weather forecasting at the National Centre for Hydro Meteorological Forecasting, said the current pattern resembles the record October 25 to 30 downpours that left parts of Hue’s Imperial Citadel submerged. However, he noted that easterly winds and the low pressure trough are weaker this time, making late October scale rainfall unlikely.
Heavy rain is forecast from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai provinces and in eastern Kon Tum, Dak Lak and Khanh Hoa provinces from November 15 to 18. Rainfall will ease north of Hue but expand further south during this period.
From November 16 to 19, rainfall is expected to reach 300 to 600 millimetres from Quang Tri to Danang and in eastern Quang Ngai and Gia Lai, with some locations exceeding 850 millimetres. Ha Tinh, eastern Dak Lak and Khanh Hoa may see 150 to 350 millimetres, while western Quang Ngai to Dak Lak could receive 100 to 200 millimetres.
Widespread rain could trigger flooding on rivers from Ha Tinh to Khanh Hoa through November 20, with rivers in Thua Thien Hue, Danang, Quang Ngai, the Kon and Ba river systems, and the Ky Lo and Dinh rivers likely to reach alert levels 2 to 3 or higher.
Authorities also warn of flash floods, landslides and urban inundation in Ha Tinh to eastern Quang Ngai, as well as in Kon Tum, Dak Lak, Khanh Hoa and eastern Lam Dong, where prolonged rainfall is expected.
In the north, a strong cold surge, the most intense of the winter so far, is advancing southwards. From the night of November 17 to November 19, rain accompanying the cold front will send temperatures sharply lower, Huong said.
The coldest days are forecast for November 18 to 19, with lows of 12 to 14 degrees Celsius in the northern delta and north central region, 8 to 11 degrees in mountainous areas and below 7 degrees in high mountains.
From November 20, rain will ease and the region will shift to dry, deeper cold at night and early morning.
