According to the ministry, drought, water shortages and saltwater intrusion have already affected around 7,100 hectares in central Vietnam, including 4,650 hectares in the north-central region and 2,450 hectares in the south-central coast and Central Highlands.
Hot weather, declining water levels in small reservoirs and saltwater intrusion along the Vinh Dien River have also forced farmers in the south-central coast and Central Highlands to delay or adjust rice planting schedules across 3,821 hectares.
In the Mekong Delta, saltwater intrusion at a concentration of four grammes per litre penetrated 40-49km inland from river mouths during the 2025-2026 dry season. Irrigation systems helped control salinity and maintain water supplies for farming and domestic use.
However, authorities warned that conditions could worsen during the 2026-2027 dry season.
The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology forecasts a 98 per cent probability of very strong El Nino conditions between October and December 2026.
El Nino is expected to remain very strong from January to March 2027, although its intensity may gradually weaken.
The ministry said the phenomenon could persist into early summer 2027, with widespread drought and saltwater intrusion risks emerging from November 2026 and potentially lasting until September 2027, depending on the region.
The areas most at risk include the south-central coast and Central Highlands, the Mekong Delta, southeastern Vietnam and the north-central region.
At the peak of the dry season, drought and saltwater intrusion could threaten between 424,800 and 502,300 hectares of crops across the four regions.
In the Mekong Delta alone, potentially affected areas include 85,800 hectares of winter-spring rice, 120,000 hectares of rice-shrimp farming land and 45,000 hectares of fruit orchards.
During the 2027 summer-autumn and main cropping seasons, drought and water shortages could affect another 83,000-140,500 hectares in north-central and south-central coastal areas.
An additional 40,000-58,000 hectares in the south-central highlands could face water shortages early in the growing season.
The ministry said it would continue updating weather and hydrological forecasts to help local authorities and irrigation operators adjust agricultural production plans.
