According to the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), around eight to 10 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea during the 2026 storm season, which runs from July to December.
Storm and tropical depression activity during the period is expected to be close to the long-term average, with around 6.5 systems typically forming in the East Sea and 2.8 making landfall in Vietnam during the period.
The NCHMF said the El Nino phenomenon has developed and is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
Average temperatures nationwide are forecast to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above normal between July and September.
Heatwaves are forecast to be more frequent than average in northern Vietnam and parts of central Vietnam, easing in the north from early September and in central regions later in the month
Heavy rainfall is expected across northern Vietnam, the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue, the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam during July and August. Widespread moderate to heavy rain could occur nationwide in September.
July rainfall is forecast to be close to average nationwide, although northern Vietnam and the Central Highlands could see 5-15 per cent more rain than usual. Rainfall is expected to rise above average in August before easing in September.
Looking further ahead, the weather agency expects El Nino conditions to persist through the end of the year, with a 63 per cent chance of a very strong El Nino event developing between November 2026 and January 2027.
Average temperatures between October and December are forecast to remain 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal across most of the country.
Storm and tropical depression activity in the East Sea during the final three months of the year is expected to be below average, with fewer systems likely to make landfall in Vietnam.
The agency warned that thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, hail and strong winds could occur nationwide between July and December, while monsoon winds, storms and tropical depressions may generate rough seas across the East Sea.
Forecasters urged local authorities and residents to closely monitor weather updates and warnings to minimise the impact of extreme weather events on production, infrastructure and daily life.
