According to Le Anh Tuan, general director of Dragon Capital Vietnam, a sharp fall in rates is unlikely, as demand for capital remains high across the economy.
The outlook comes as bank interest rates have climbed rapidly since late 2025, with many lenders offering deposit rates of more than 7.5 per cent a year across multiple tenors.
On exchange rates, Tuan said prospects are more positive. After a period of volatility linked to tariff-related factors, the exchange rate has stabilised despite a sharp rise in gold prices. The gap between official and free-market exchange rates has also narrowed significantly.
He added that the potential appointment of a new US Federal Reserve chair, together with expectations of more than two interest rate cuts in 2026, could help narrow the interest rate differential between Vietnam and global markets, creating more favourable conditions for the dong.
Addressing concerns about excessive borrowing, Tuan said credit levels should be assessed across both bank lending and capital market channels, including corporate bonds. Overall borrowing remains moderate, particularly in the corporate sector, he said.
Tuan forecast that economic growth in 2026 could exceed 9 per cent, while inflation is expected to remain below 4 per cent. Money supply is projected to rise by about 12.5-13 per cent, with exchange rates fluctuating within a 1-2 per cent range. Macroeconomic indicators remain broadly stable, with no major risks identified.
