According to the third-quarter 2026 report by the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), export volume rose 15.4 per cent year on year, while export revenue increased 10.2 per cent.
The figures indicate a strong recovery in export volumes. However, revenue grew more slowly than volume, reflecting pressure on average export prices this year.
In the third quarter, Vietnam's average export price for black pepper stood at USD 6,205 per tonne, down 2 per cent from the second quarter and 3.2 per cent from a year earlier. White pepper averaged USD 8,081 per tonne, falling 3 per cent quarter on quarter and 5.7 per cent year on year.
Pepper exports in the first nine months brought in more than USD 1.39 billion (Photo: Nam Binh).
On the domestic market, black pepper averaged more than VND 137,300 (USD 5.31) per kilo, down 1.7 per cent from the second quarter and 5.3 per cent from the same period in 2025, a decrease of about VND 7,600 (USD 0.29) per kilo.
White pepper averaged VND 217,600 (USD 8.42) per kilo, down more than 2 per cent quarter on quarter and 7.5 per cent year on year.
Domestic prices showed signs of a modest recovery towards the end of the quarter. Black pepper prices rose from VND 136,000 (USD 5.26) per kilo in July to VND 138,000 (USD 5.34) in August and September. White pepper increased from VND 215,000 (USD 8.32) to VND 219,000 (USD 8.47) per kilo.
However, the rebound has not been sufficient to restore prices to last year's levels. VPSA said Vietnam's pepper output in the 2026 harvest was lower than in 2025, while inventories remained limited. Although these factors would normally support prices, the market has yet to strengthen as expected.
Supply from Brazil has been more abundant following a favourable harvest, while larger volumes from Cambodia have also entered the market. Prolonged geopolitical uncertainty has further constrained price gains throughout the third quarter.
Despite subdued prices, export markets have remained a bright spot for Vietnam's pepper industry.
The United States remained the largest destination. Vietnam shipped 50,621 tonnes of pepper to the US in the first nine months, up 26.6 per cent year on year and accounting for 23.5 per cent of total exports.
Exports to China exceeded 24,900 tonnes, surging 62.2 per cent and representing 11.5 per cent of the total. Combined, the US and China imported more than 75,500 tonnes, equivalent to 35 per cent of Vietnam's pepper exports during the period.
According to VPSA, growth in these two markets accounted for about 70.3 per cent of the overall increase in export volume year on year. This helped sustain industry growth as demand weakened in some other markets.
Pepper prices could rise towards year-end as supplies tighten
The pepper market is expected to fluctuate around relatively stable price levels in the short to medium term during the final three months of the year, with the possibility of further gains due to limited remaining inventories.
However, supplies from Brazil's new harvest could increase the volume offered for sale, intensifying competition for Vietnamese pepper, particularly in price-sensitive markets.
On the other hand, import demand for manufacturing, consumption and inventory replenishment, together with transport costs, could provide support for prices.
If the US and China increase purchases while export availability remains limited, pepper prices could recover. Conversely, greater Brazilian supply combined with cautious buyers could put prices under downward pressure.
Alongside trade developments, weather conditions are emerging as a key factor affecting supply in 2027.
VPSA said uneven rainfall had affected post-harvest pepper cultivation. Persistent rain in the southeastern provinces and Central Highlands during September and the first week of October had also affected fruit set for the 2027 crop.
Forecasts that El Niño could become severe towards the end of the year have added to concerns about production. Under a scenario outlined by VPSA, high temperatures, insufficient rainfall and changes in monsoon patterns could affect plant growth, flowering and fruit development in growing regions.
However, these weather risks are not enough to determine how much next season's pepper output might decline. VPSA plans to survey major growing areas in early December to assess plant development, cultivated area, yields, pest and disease conditions, and the new crop's supply potential.
