Singapore-based United Overseas Bank, or UOB, raised its forecast from a previous 7 per cent in its latest Vietnam economic outlook report.
Vietnam’s real GDP expanded 8.46 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025, accelerating from 8.25 per cent in the third quarter, driven by resilient exports and steady manufacturing despite the impact of US tariffs.
The fourth-quarter figure exceeded Bloomberg’s forecast of 7.7 per cent and UOB’s earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent, marking the fastest quarterly expansion since 2009, excluding the Covid-19 period.
For 2025 as a whole, GDP growth reached about 8 per cent, above UOB’s forecast of 7.7 per cent but short of the Government’s target of 8.3-8.5 per cent, which would have required a sharp final-quarter surge.
Exports remained the main growth engine. In the fourth quarter of 2025, export turnover rose 19 per cent year on year, while full-year exports increased 17 per cent despite tariff headwinds. The processing and manufacturing sector expanded 11.3 per cent in the quarter, compared with 10 per cent a year earlier, lifting full-year growth to 10.5 per cent.
Suan Teck Kin, executive director for global economics and markets research at UOB, said Vietnam showed strong resilience in 2025. With GDP growth at 8 per cent, the economy enters 2026 on a solid footing, prompting the upgrade to a 7.5 per cent growth forecast.
UOB cautioned, however, about downside risks, including base effects, the potential for export growth to moderate and prolonged uncertainty over US tariff policies.
Vietnam’s high trade openness makes it vulnerable to external shocks, with exports of goods and services accounting for about 83 per cent of GDP, the second-highest ratio in ASEAN after Singapore. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market, taking about 30 per cent of total exports in 2024, followed by China at 15 per cent and the Republic of Korea at 6 per cent.
On monetary policy, UOB said strong growth and favourable prospects leave limited room for further easing. Average inflation in 2025 stood at 3.2 per cent, with core inflation at 3.3 per cent, driven mainly by higher healthcare and education costs.
The Vietnamese dong depreciated 3.1 per cent against the US dollar in 2025, the third-largest fall in Asia. UOB expects the State Bank of Vietnam to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent throughout 2026 to maintain macroeconomic stability.
