Le Dinh Quyet, head of the forecasting department at the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Centre, said climate models indicate El Nino will continue to intensify through the end of 2026 and could reach a very strong level by late 2026 or early 2027.
He said southern Vietnam is likely to receive below-average rainfall, with the rainy season expected to end in late October or early November, several weeks earlier than usual, particularly across the Mekong Delta.
Reduced rainfall and higher temperatures are expected to lower water availability, increasing the risk of drought and saltwater intrusion, with seawater potentially reaching 80-100 km (50-62 miles) inland along rivers and canals in the Mekong Delta.
Meteorologists said the current El Nino could match or exceed the intensity of the 2015-2016 event, one of the strongest on record, raising concerns over water shortages during the coming dry season.
Localities including Soc Trang, Vinh Long, Ca Mau, Can Tho and Tay Ninh are expected to be among the hardest hit if forecasts materialise.
Authorities have been urged to maximise freshwater storage during the rainy season, prepare saltwater control infrastructure and adjust agricultural production to reduce the impact of drought and water shortages.
