Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank
The bank expects growth to moderate to 4.9 per cent in the second half of 2025, following a robust 7.5 per cent expansion in the first half.
Despite near-term trade headwinds, the report notes that Vietnam’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain solid. Export growth rebounded early in the year, while the country has maintained consistent trade surpluses. Imports have also risen, largely driven by raw materials, machinery, and spare parts, reflecting sustained industrial activity.
Vietnam posted a trade surplus of USD 2.8 billion in June, supporting the value of the Vietnamese dong and strengthening the country’s external balance. However, domestic demand showed signs of softening, with retail sales growth slowing to 8.3 per cent year-on-year.
Standard Chartered also lowered its 2025 inflation forecast to 3.5 per cent from 3.8 per cent. Headline inflation has remained below 4.0 per cent for 11 consecutive months as of June, reducing the scope for further monetary easing and suggesting the State Bank of Vietnam may adopt a more neutral policy stance.
The report cautions that risks of demand-driven inflation persist, and a continued rise in prices, coupled with dong depreciation, may limit room for further rate cuts. The bank expects the refinancing rate to remain unchanged through the rest of 2025.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) remains a bright spot. Disbursed FDI in the first half of the year rose 8.1 per cent year-on-year to USD 11.7 billion, while pledged FDI surged 32.6 per cent to USD 21.5 billion, led by the manufacturing and property sectors.
Standard Chartered also raised its end-Q3 and end-2025 forecasts for the USD/VND exchange rate to 26,300, up from previous projections of 26,000 and 25,700, respectively.
“Vietnam’s trade outlook remains encouraging, supported by strong export performance and a rebound in tourism,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Senior Economist for Vietnam and Thailand at Standard Chartered. “While some moderation is expected, this provides an opportunity for the central bank to rebuild foreign exchange reserves. Overall, we believe Vietnam is well-positioned to navigate near-term challenges and sustain its growth momentum.”
As part of its market insight initiatives, Standard Chartered recently hosted the Global & Vietnam Outlook H2 2025, a virtual event gathering business leaders and clients to discuss global and domestic economic trends.
