Newly developed townhouses in HCM City’s Long Binh ward. (Photo: VNA)
New supply in Ho Chi Minh City and neighbouring provinces is rising sharply, led by high-end apartments and low-rise housing, while demand remains driven mainly by owner-occupiers rather than speculation.
At the Connecting the Present, Shaping the Future Housing Real Estate Forum, property consultancy CBRE Vietnam said the outlook for the southern market in 2025 and beyond would be supported by a stable macroeconomic environment, a regional GDP growth target of 8 per cent and spillover effects from strategic infrastructure investment.
Duong Thuy Dung, managing director of CBRE Vietnam, said the stabilisation of lending interest rates had helped revive both end-user and investor demand, although the market still needed time to absorb the growing volume of new supply.
The strongest catalyst is new transport infrastructure, including Ring Roads Nos 3 and 4, Long Thanh International Airport, the Bien Hoa-Vung Tau Expressway, the Ben Luc-Long Thanh Expressway and the expanding metro network in Ho Chi Minh City. These projects are shortening travel times between localities and accelerating the development of satellite urban centres.
CBRE estimates that Ho Chi Minh City will see about 12,000 new housing products in 2025, including around 7,600 apartments and 4,400 low-rise homes. In the apartment segment, high-end and luxury units are expected to account for 90 per cent of new launches, with average selling prices in the final quarter forecast to rise by 18 per cent year on year.
In surrounding provinces, Binh Duong is projected to add more than 15,800 units, mostly apartments. Long An is expected to supply about 1,300 units, while Ba Ria-Vung Tau is forecast to contribute more than 800 low-rise homes. Dong Nai alone is projected to deliver around 9,400 units, with low-rise housing making up roughly 75 per cent.
Across five key southern localities, total new supply could exceed 39,300 units, double the volume recorded in 2023-2024.
Experts said new ring roads and expressways were reshaping the region’s urban structure. Ho Chi Minh City is increasingly focusing on high-end and luxury developments, while neighbouring provinces expand low-rise housing, ecological townships and projects linked to public transport.
This trend is driving an outward shift in housing demand as residents seek larger living spaces while commuting times fall to 30-45 minutes.
A developer representative in Dong Nai said buyers had become more cautious, moving away from short-term speculation towards long-term value. Areas near future metro stations, Ring Road No 3 interchanges and connectors to Long Thanh International Airport were emerging as investment hotspots.
Buyers are increasingly prioritising amenities, green standards and occupancy rates over the lowest headline prices.
Green living and transit-oriented development (TOD) are also shaping demand. Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, director of residential at CBRE Vietnam, said TOD and green real estate were becoming defining pillars of the market.
Projects located along metro lines, bus rapid transit corridors or ecological routes typically achieve higher absorption rates thanks to reduced commuting times and integrated services. At the same time, green criteria have become essential for younger buyers.
CBRE data shows new apartment launches in Ho Chi Minh City average about VND 90 million per square metre (about USD 3,700), yet absorption remains healthy, particularly in the high-end and luxury segments. In neighbouring markets, prices are 30-50 per cent lower, aligning better with the budgets of young families buying for long-term residence.
Le Thi Thuy Trang, a resident of Cau Kieu Ward who is seeking a home in Hiep Binh Ward, said her family prioritised projects near metro lines with ample green space for children. Although prices were higher, she said improved living conditions and convenience justified the cost.
New townships in Dong Nai and Binh Duong typically incorporate parks, running tracks, schools and commercial centres. Low-rise housing remains popular due to larger living spaces suited to multi-generational households.
CBRE Vietnam expects the southern market to add up to 50,000 new housing units in 2026. Greater diversity in location, segment and product quality is intensifying competition, prompting developers to raise standards in design, amenities and services.
Economists said this competition ultimately benefits buyers as projects become more transparent, better equipped and more efficiently managed. CBRE representatives added that abundant land availability, improving connectivity and competitive pricing continue to attract developers from the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Japan.
