Tran Hoang Son, market strategy director at VPBank Securities, said the Middle East conflict could weigh on the VN-Index between March 2 and 6, triggering volatility and cautious sentiment.
If tensions between the US, Israel and Iran intensify, Brent crude could surge to USD 90-100 a barrel, particularly in the event of prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling global risk aversion.
The market may open the week under selling pressure. With the VN-Index approaching its historic peak of 1,900-1,920 points, a short-term correction towards 1,850-1,870 points, or even 1,800-1,830 points, is possible if selling broadens or foreign investors step up net outflows.
However, analysts believe overall losses would likely be limited and short-lived, similar to previous geopolitical shocks. Vietnam’s market has limited direct dependence on Iranian oil, meaning the impact would mainly be transmitted through investor sentiment and foreign capital flows.
If oil prices stabilise quickly thanks to a response from OPEC and no major global supply disruption occurs, the VN-Index could resume consolidation and maintain its upward trend.
A report by Viet Dragon Securities said the conflict’s impact would be transmitted through three main channels: rising oil prices lifting inflation expectations, higher transport and insurance costs, and shifts in global risk appetite affecting capital flows.
Under a base-case scenario in which tensions escalate without severely disrupting supply, the VN-Index may fluctuate on cautious sentiment, while sectors benefiting from higher oil prices and freight rates could outperform the broader market.
Winners and losers
Israel airstrikes Tehran on the morning of March 2 (Photo: Faytuks).
Analysts at VPBank Securities said oil and energy stocks would be the most obvious beneficiaries, as higher crude prices tend to boost profit margins and accelerate upstream and gas infrastructure projects. These shares could move counter to the broader market trend.
Certain petrochemical-related firms may also benefit indirectly from rising input prices, with fertiliser producers highlighted as potentially reacting positively to higher commodity prices.
Port and logistics companies could gain if shipping routes are altered or energy transport demand rises, pushing up freight rates.
Conversely, sectors sensitive to inflation and fuel price increases, including consumer goods, manufacturing and road transport, may come under pressure if domestic retail fuel prices rise sharply.
Maybank Securities Vietnam noted that fertiliser stocks could benefit from global supply chain disruptions. The Middle East is a major export hub for urea, and prolonged conflict could lift prices of urea as well as DAP and MAP products, supporting fertiliser equities.
Energy shares, highly sensitive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, may also see short-term gains if supply risks from Iran drive Brent prices higher.
In shipping, instability in the region, similar to the Red Sea crisis, often prompts carriers to impose fuel surcharges and war risk premiums. Companies operating their own fleets could have an advantage by passing on higher costs and directly benefiting from rising global freight rates.
In the near term, Viet Dragon Securities advised investors to prioritise risk management by maintaining a reasonable cash allocation and avoiding chasing speculative stocks while the geopolitical outlook remains uncertain, particularly in commodity-related sectors.
