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Economic restructuring, particularly in public investment and the financial and banking systems, has been identified as a key condition for achieving double-digit growth in the next development phase.
For 2025, Vietnam has set a GDP growth target of more than 8 per cent. Based on socio-economic performance in the first 11 months of the year, experts believe the target is well within reach.
Economic expert Nguyen Minh Phong said an 8 per cent growth rate in 2025 is entirely feasible. Growth of 8.3-8.5 per cent would depend largely on performance in the final month of the year, but prospects remain positive. Year-end periods typically see faster public investment disbursement, alongside stronger exports and consumption. The government has also instructed ministries and localities to ensure full disbursement of public investment capital, while peak year-end consumption provides an additional boost.
According to a government report on socio-economic development in 2025 and the 2021-2025 period, presented to the 15th National Assembly at its 10th session, Vietnam’s economy has shown strong resilience to external shocks and maintained one of the world’s highest growth rates. GDP in 2025 is projected to expand by more than 8 per cent year on year, while average growth in 2021-2025 is estimated at 6.3 per cent, higher than the 6.2 per cent recorded in the previous five-year period.
These results are notable given that in 2021 Vietnam’s economy was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP growth of just 2.55 per cent. By contrast, the four-year period from 2022 to 2025 saw average annual growth of 7.2 per cent, exceeding the target range of 6.5-7 per cent.
Alongside growth, the size of the economy has expanded significantly, from USD 346 billion in 2020 to an estimated USD 510 billion in 2025, lifting Vietnam five places to 32nd globally. GDP per capita in 2025 is expected to reach about USD 5,000, around 1.4 times higher than in 2020, placing the country firmly in the upper-middle-income group.
Economists said these achievements provide an important foundation for Vietnam to target double-digit growth in 2026-2030, with the aim of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2030 and joining the ranks of high-income economies by 2045.
Opportunities are expanding, but challenges remain. Vietnam continues to face headwinds from geopolitical tensions, rising trade protectionism, limited participation of domestic firms in global value chains, as well as climate change, environmental pollution and increasingly extreme weather.
To overcome these obstacles, experts stressed the need to reshape the development mindset and establish a new growth model, creating new drivers based on science and technology, innovation, digital transformation and the green transition, while revitalising traditional engines more effectively.
Vo Tri Thanh, director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy, said international experience shows that successful transitions require a shift towards sustainable and inclusive development, from “brown” to “green” growth and from a purely real economy to one closely integrated with the digital economy.
Nguyen Quoc Anh, deputy director of the Institute of Strategy and Policy on Economic and Financial Affairs under the ministry of finance, highlighted the need to move from extensive to intensive growth, with total factor productivity as a core benchmark. Boosting labour productivity through technology adoption, high-quality human resource training and modern governance will be decisive.
He also underlined the importance of deep economic restructuring to remove long-standing bottlenecks in institutions, infrastructure and human capital. Digital, green and circular economies are seen as key to deeper integration and global competitiveness, with the private sector expected to play a leading role in innovation-led, sustainable growth.
