Farmers sceptical over pig market predictions
Tong Xuan Chinh, deputy head of the Department of Livestock Production, said pork prices in some areas had increased to VND39,000 (USD1.72) per kg, and sometimes to VND41,000. However, the department said Vietnam wouldn't lack pork this year so farmers should calculate carefully how many pigs should be raised.
"Our survey shows that demand for pork in the domestic market has been saturated. Export contracts to China won't be completed this year while border trade is unreliable. It's not safe to increase the number of pigs at this time. Farmers won't gain much if everything goes smoothly and suffer huge losses if something goes wrong," he said.
The department will gather information from FDI firms, big farms and household-sized farms to have the best assessments and long-term predictions for local authorities. They are collaborating with other units to develop software that can forecast the livestock market.
However, many farmers were sceptical about the warning and believe that the pork prices will continue to rise for several reasons.
Firstly, supply has dropped after many farms were closed due to huge losses during the sharp price decline in April. Secondly, China is importing pork and the demand will last for quite a while because of floods. Thirdly, the Mid-Autumn Festival and Vu Lan Festival are approaching so firms will buy more pork to make products.
Moreover, pork prices usually increase during the later months of the year and domestic demand will increase because of the rainy season.
Nguyen The Anh, a farm owner in Hanoi, said pork prices might increase to VND50,000 (USD2.20) per kg. Several households in Thai Binh, Ha Nam and Phu Tho provinces only sold a small amount of their stock to assess the situation. Traders often calculate the prices based on prices of major livestock companies such as the Dabaco Group.
Nguyen Kim Doan, deputy head of Dong Nai Province Association of Livestock Production, said the pork prices hadn't reached the peak. Farmers could wait for higher prices. It would be a wise decision and not mindless farm expansion case if prices are on a long-term rise and people flock to buy a huge number of pigs to raise in just a few months, he said.
