Due to the gloomy forecasts for the global economy in 2012, Vietnam will prioritise economic restructuring and macroeconomic stability next year.
A challenging year forecast for Vietnam's economy in 2012
Experts gathered at a seminar in Hanoi on December 17 to discuss prospects for Vietnam’s economy in the coming year.
Challenging year
Experts predicted that the world economy would continue to experience a global economic downturn with a considerable decrease in economic growth rates in the US, EU, Japan and China. Economic instabilities may increase while a monetary war may compound conflicts over trade during the year, expert forecast.
They said that Vietnam would be seriously affected by global economic trends. The country will pay due attention to ensuring macroeconomic stability, curbing inflation and restoring economic growth.
Associate Prof cum Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, Director of the Vietnam Institutes of Economics, said, “Next year will be a challenging time for the national economy, which requires a breakthrough in order to strengthen macroeconomic stability in a bid to regain the people’s confidence and tame inflation.”
According to Thien, one of important tasks for the coming year is to restructure the national economy.
In order to curb an obsession with growth alone, the quality of economic growth should be the main target, with a less ambitious rate set for the year, he emphasised.
Proposed solutions
Banking and finance expert Dr. Can Van Luc said the country should target to lower inflation rate to 6% to 7% next year. It should not pay too much attention to the GDP growth rate and economy should be expected to expand by 5% as a maximum.
He recommended that greater efforts should be made to slash budget spending and public investment and lower the budget deficit to 4% of GDP in 2012.
Associate Prof. cum Dr. Tran Dinh Thien emphasised reforms to salaries for the state economic sector were necessary in order to heighten the efficiency of the state apparatus and regain the public’s confidence.
The state budget should prioritise the construction of key economic zones in Phu Quoc, Vung Tau, Danang-Chan May and Haiphong, Thien added.
In order to foster the Government’s efforts to tame inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has curbed the country’s credit growth rate at between 15% and 17% for next year, down from a maximum of 20% this year.
