Vietnam is ageing at one of the fastest rates in the world and is projected to enter an aged population phase by 2036 before reaching 'super-aged' status by 2049. This demographic shift will have profound implications, including labour shortages and economic challenges.
According to the United Nations’ 2024 World Population Prospects report, global fertility rates have declined significantly. Women today are having, on average, one child fewer than in 1990, with more than half of all countries and territories now recording birth rates below the replacement level.
Vietnam is no exception.
The country’s 2024 mid-term Population and Housing Census shows that its total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.91 children per woman, the lowest on record. This marks a steady decline from the replacement level observed between 2009 and 2022. The fertility rate in urban areas is notably lower (1.67) compared to rural areas (2.08).
Countries such as Japan, South Korea and China have struggled to reverse falling fertility rates once they decline, raising concerns about Vietnam’s long-term population trends.
Despite the decline in birth rates, Vietnam remains in its golden population period, where for every two working-age individuals, there is one dependent.
According to Deputy Director of the Department of Population and Labour Statistics, Nguyễn Thị Thanh Mai, the working-age population (15–64 years) currently accounts for 67.4 per cent of the total, while children under 15 make up 23.3 per cent.
Those aged 65 and above comprise 9.3 per cent.
However, this balance is shifting rapidly. By 2024, the number of elderly people (aged 60 and above) had reached 14.2 million, increasing by 2.8 million since 2019 and 4.7 million since 2014. Projections suggest this figure will reach 18 million by 2030, underscoring the speed of the ageing process.
Mai warned that without effective policy intervention, birth rates will continue to decline, exacerbating the economic and social strain of an ageing population.
While population decline is a concern, she emphasises that ageing itself reflects improvements in healthcare, living conditions and social welfare. Rather than trying to halt this trend, Vietnam must focus on adaptation strategies.
Unlike developed nations, which took decades or centuries to transition from ageing to aged societies, Vietnam will complete this shift in just 26 years. If the current fertility decline continues unchecked, the country’s population is expected to begin shrinking between 2054 and 2059, with a sharper decline thereafter.
A shrinking workforce will pose significant economic challenges, leading to labour shortages, lower productivity and increased pressure on social welfare systems, particularly healthcare and pensions.
Experts highlight the rising costs of raising children as a major deterrent to higher birth rates. In urban areas, the financial burden of housing, education, and healthcare discourages young couples from having more children. Many prioritise career advancement and quality of life over larger families.
One key solution is to enhance public awareness through education and media campaigns promoting the value of childbearing and parenting. These efforts should aim to shift societal perceptions of family life and children’s roles in society.
Dr Hoàng Tú Anh, Director of the Centre for Creative Initiatives in Health and Population (CCIHP), noted that Vietnam’s ageing process is accelerating. In response, the Ministry of Health has proposed lifting disciplinary measures against Party members who have a third child or more, a policy shift seen as necessary under current conditions.
“Removing restrictions on the number of children is a step in the right direction. Deciding how many children to have is a reproductive right. At the macro level, the state should implement policies that respect family aspirations while supporting national development,” she told the Voice of Vietnam.
Anh also pointed out that beyond economic concerns, personal values and traditions influence family planning decisions. To develop effective policies, the government must first conduct research to understand these factors before proposing solutions.
Implementing policies to support working parents will require collaboration across multiple sectors. A pressing issue is the lack of childcare facilities in industrial zones, where young workers struggle to balance work and parenting. Many couples delay having children or send them back to their hometowns to be raised by grandparents due to the high cost and scarcity of daycare services.
To address this, policymakers should mandate the inclusion of childcare centres, schools and healthcare facilities in industrial zones. Employers must also be encouraged to provide family-friendly workplace policies, with incentives offered to those that comply.
