International financial institutions and economic organisations have expressed optimism about Vietnam’s growth prospects in 2026, pointing to the country’s strong economic performance in 2025 and continued reform momentum amid global uncertainty.
Vietnam recorded a breakthrough year in 2025, defying trade volatility and the lingering impact of geopolitical tensions.
Official data show gross domestic product expanded by more than 8 per cent last year, far exceeding initial expectations and placing Vietnam among southeast Asia’s fastest-growing and most dynamic economies.
Shantanu Chakraborty, country director of the Asian Development Bank in Vietnam, said the above-8 per cent growth reflected an effective mix of domestic institutional reform and the country’s ability to benefit from global supply chain realignment. He noted consistent policy management, from faster public investment disbursement to gradual legal reforms creating more space for the private sector and the digital economy.
Suan Teck Kin, executive director for global economics and markets research at UOB, said Vietnam has emerged as one of Asean’s key growth engines.
UOB analysis shows industrial production continues to play a central role, strengthening Vietnam’s position in global value chains. At the same time, a clear recovery in domestic consumption and a strong rebound in tourism in 2025 supported aggregate demand, alongside the leading role of public investment.
Another highlight last year was the resilience of exports despite shifts in US trade policy. Vietnam’s total import-export turnover exceeded USD 900 billion for the first time, marking a historic milestone in its international economic integration.
International observers have described this as growth amid adversity, reflecting rising competitiveness among Vietnamese exporters. Rather than relying solely on low costs, many firms have increasingly met stringent requirements on green standards, traceability and rules of origin, helping to cushion the impact of new technical barriers and tariffs while retaining access to demanding markets.
However, international organisations have cautioned about external risks in 2026. In its Article IV consultation released in late 2025, the International Monetary Fund noted that part of recent growth was driven by firms accelerating exports ahead of new tariff measures, meaning the full impact of rising protectionism may become more apparent this year.
From a financial perspective, Jung Hyo Chang, director of FX and derivatives trading at Shinhan Bank Vietnam, warned that external shocks could pressure the exchange rate and short-term capital flows. Without sufficiently flexible and prudent management of foreign exchange reserves, sharp currency swings could undermine investor confidence.
UOB’s Suan Teck Kin also described Vietnam’s high economic openness as a double-edged sword. With exports accounting for about 83 per cent of GDP, the economy benefits strongly from buoyant global trade but remains vulnerable to slowdowns in key markets such as the US and Europe amid persistent inflation or tighter monetary policy.
Most international experts agree that sustaining double-digit growth in 2026 and beyond will be challenging, though achievable if existing growth drivers are strengthened.
According to the ADB country director, three pillars could underpin higher growth: structural reforms to improve the business environment and market efficiency; faster digital transformation combined with high-quality human resource development; and the attraction of high-quality foreign direct investment, particularly in technology, advanced manufacturing and green industries.
As Vietnam enters 2026, the first year of the 2026-2030 socio-economic development plan, international organisations stress that maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving growth quality and staying the course on core reforms will be critical to turning positive assessments into durable outcomes.
