Climate change could spell doom for delta

Average temperatures in northern central Vietnam can rise by 3.5 degrees centigrade and dry season rainfall reduce by 30 percent by 2100, according to a new report prepared by the MONRE.

Average temperatures in northern central Vietnam can rise by 3.5 degrees centigrade and dry season rainfall reduce by 30 percent by 2100, according to a new climate change report prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment.
The new predictions are based on updated data collected from 200 meteorological stations and satellites. It paints a worse scenario than an earlier report in 2009 which estimated average temperature increase at 2.8 degrees centigrade and rainfall reduction at 18 percent.

In the new version, by 2100, hot days with temperatures over 35 degrees centigrade would double in comparison with now. Rainfall would increase by 2-7 percent in the rainy season but drop significantly during dry season.

The report divides climate change impacts into three categories: low, medium and high, depending on the level of emissions and socio-economic development.

At the medium level, if the sea water rises by 1m, around 2.5 percent of land area in central coastal provinces, 10 percent of the Hong River Delta, 20 percent of HCM City and 39 percent of the Mekong Delta would be inundated.

Four percent of the railway system, nine percent of highways and 12 percent of provincial roads would be submerged.

If emissions increased at higher levels in Vietnam and the world, the sea levels are expected to rise by 2m, in which case the Mekong Delta would virtually cease to exit with 92 percent under water.

The Red River Delta and HCM City would lose 30 and 36 percent of their land respectively.

The scenarios sketched in the report are expected to inform plans formulated to tackle climate change by concerned ministries and departments