The expanded HCM City market is forecast to receive a substantial supply of new apartments in the coming years, although the homes will be unevenly distributed across locations and segments. A recent report by Knight Frank estimates that about 42,593 units will be added by the end of 2027, including 22,187 in the former HCM City area.
In the urban core, new supply will continue to be concentrated in the high-end and luxury segments. By contrast, the former Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau areas have a higher proportion of affordable and mid-range apartments.
Knight Frank said former Binh Duong Province would remain an important satellite market, offering homes at more accessible prices. Apartment prices there are expected to rise but remain relatively lower than in HCM City, helping to meet housing demand.
In the near term, new supply is also shifting towards areas with more available land and more affordable prices. DKRA Consulting, part of DKRA Group, forecasts that 7,000-10,000 new apartments could be launched in the fourth quarter, a slight increase from the previous quarter. Supply is expected to be concentrated in eastern and southern HCM City and the former Binh Duong area.
The market's segmentation is also reflected in the types of homes being developed. Grade A apartments continue to dominate the central area, while Grade B and C units remain the mainstay of outlying markets. Demand is expected to improve towards the end of the year, supported by housing needs, although a sharp increase is unlikely while prices remain high.
Average primary asking prices currently stand at USD 4,210 per square metre, up 3 per cent from the previous quarter, equivalent to more than VND 100 million per square metre. At this price level, affordability has become a key consideration for homebuyers, particularly as demand is still largely driven by people purchasing homes to live in.
Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, director and head of residential project marketing at CBRE Vietnam, said buyers' priorities were also changing. Whereas they had previously focused mainly on location, selling prices and payment schedules, they were now paying greater attention to construction quality, property management, amenities and the living environment.
Buyers and investors are increasingly concerned with the practical value of a property and its long-term potential. Projects with good construction standards, reliable management and well-maintained amenities are therefore likely to have an advantage as the market offers more choices.
Changing demand is forcing developers to reassess their products more carefully. Kiet said project development costs were high, covering land-use fees, construction, labour, materials, operations and marketing, while purchasing power remained concentrated in the mid-priced segment.
Developers therefore need to closely manage legal procedures, funding, cash flow and construction schedules, while identifying their target customer groups from the outset of project development.
A senior executive at a real estate company also said businesses needed to adapt internally, particularly in terms of staffing. Technology should be selected according to customers' actual needs rather than adopted simply to follow trends. By identifying their target buyers correctly, developers can tailor designs, amenities and product development strategies more effectively.
Alongside selling prices and product quality, interest rates are another factor directly affecting homebuyers' purchasing power.
In a report presented at VPBank's October investor meeting, MB Securities (MBS) said deposit rates had likely peaked. However, banks' funding costs could remain under pressure for around three months as existing deposits mature and are renewed at higher rates.
MBS said several factors were supporting a potential decline in interest rates, including slower credit growth, deposit growth in the first nine months outpacing credit growth, and the State Bank of Vietnam's policy direction to lower lending rates.
Nevertheless, a banking executive said mortgage rates for real estate purchases could only fall to a limited extent, as funding remained constrained and banks still needed to manage risks.