At a conference in Ho Chi Minh City on October 19 reviewing the 2025-2026 crop year and setting priorities for the next season, Do Xuan Hien, chief of office at the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), said the country’s coffee output was estimated at 31.7 million bags, equivalent to nearly 1.9 million tonnes. This represented an increase of about 6-10 per cent from the previous crop year.
Coffee exports reached a record turnover of USD 8.5 billion in the past crop year (Photo: Nam Binh).
Robusta continued to account for more than 90 per cent of production, helping Vietnam maintain its position as one of the world’s leading producers and suppliers of the variety.
Vietnam exported about 1.8 million tonnes of coffee during the crop year, earning USD 8.5 billion, the highest export revenue ever recorded by the sector. Compared with the 2024-2025 crop year, export volume rose by about 21 per cent, while export value increased by only around 1 per cent.
VICOFA attributed the resilience of export prices to historically low inventories on the London and New York exchanges. Vietnamese Robusta exports maintained an average price of USD 3,500-4,000 per tonne.
Green coffee beans remained the main export product, accounting for about 1.65 million tonnes and nearly USD 7 billion in revenue. Although shipment volume increased by 21.4 per cent, export value fell by 1.5 per cent from the previous crop year, highlighting the need to increase product value rather than rely solely on selling larger volumes overseas.
Price movements throughout the crop year reflected changing market conditions. From October 2025 to January 2026, Robusta export prices at Ho Chi Minh City port remained high at around USD 4,800-5,100 per tonne. Supplies from the previous harvest were dwindling as demand for deliveries increased, pushing prices up.
Between February and May 2026, the market began to correct as crop prospects in Brazil and Vietnam improved. By May, the average export price at Ho Chi Minh City port had fallen to around USD 4,411 per tonne. Prices fluctuated between USD 3,500 and USD 4,000 per tonne in August and September as new supplies entered the market.
In the domestic market, coffee prices in the Central Highlands stood at around VND 93,000-93,600 per kg at the end of September, well below the peak of VND 115,000-118,000 per kg recorded in late 2025. Despite the decline, raw material costs remained high, putting pressure on processors and roasters.
Processed coffee gains ground as sustainability requirements tighten
Another bright spot for Vietnam’s coffee industry was growth in higher-value processed products. Exports of processed coffee reached about 142,600 tonnes in the 2025-2026 crop year, with estimated revenue of USD 1.5 billion. Volume rose by around 15 per cent and value by 14 per cent from the previous season.
Alongside changes in the product mix, sustainable production requirements are increasingly affecting the competitiveness of Vietnamese coffee. The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires businesses to demonstrate product traceability, provide the coordinates of growing areas and establish the legality of their supply chains.
The EU remained Vietnam’s largest coffee export market, accounting for more than 38 per cent of market share. The United States and Japan each maintained shares of around 5-7 per cent, while China was emerging as a growing market for instant coffee and raw materials used in further processing.
Experts at the conference said shipments meeting EUDR requirements could command a premium of about USD 50 per tonne, offering a meaningful advantage as buyers pay greater attention to traceability and the environmental impact of products.
Tam Anh, a representative of Jacobs Douwe Egberts (JDE), one of the world’s major coffee roasters and a significant coffee buyer in Vietnam, said the country retained considerable advantages in Robusta production and exports, particularly in output and logistics.
However, other coffee-producing countries, including Brazil and Uganda, are stepping up efforts to promote their brands, build processing capacity and expand their presence in international markets.
Tam Anh said Vietnam needed a coordinated, national-level campaign to promote its coffee, involving ministries, agencies and industry associations. Such an approach could strengthen the international standing of Vietnamese Robusta rather than leaving individual companies to promote themselves independently.
She also noted that Brazil was investing heavily in processing plants and attracting major trading companies to help develop technology. This posed a challenge for Vietnam to improve its processing capabilities, build larger and more competitive businesses, and capture greater value from coffee exports.
Do Ha Nam, vice-chairman of VICOFA, said that roasting and deep processing had previously been dominated largely by foreign-invested companies. Vietnamese coffee exporters were now stepping up investment in processing to gradually reduce their reliance on exporting green beans.
On prices, Nam said coffee had reached multi-year highs and any future decline would be a normal market adjustment.
He added that Vietnamese coffee farmers were not under immediate pressure to sell. Many now stored coffee at home as a form of asset, releasing their stocks only when they needed cash. As a result, he said, falling prices were unlikely to be a major concern for farmers in the coming crop year.
The International Coffee Organization estimates that global coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop year will reach about 183.6 million bags, up 4.4 per cent from the previous season. Consumption is forecast to fall by 0.8 per cent to 180.6 million bags.
The projected surplus of about three million bags would mark a shift after four consecutive years of global supply deficits.