The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has released its seasonal outlook for September 2026 to February 2027, highlighting El Nino conditions and tropical cyclone activity.
El Nino is forecast to remain strong to very strong from September to November, with a 100 per cent probability, including a 93 per cent chance of reaching very strong intensity and 7 per cent of remaining strong.
From October to December, the probability of a very strong El Nino rises to 95 per cent.
El Nino is expected to remain strong to very strong from December 2026 to February 2027, with a 93 per cent probability, including a 70 per cent chance of very strong conditions.
Fewer storms forecast, but severe risks remain
ENSO is a key factor in forecasting climate trends, particularly storms, rainfall and flooding in Vietnam and globally.
Storm and tropical depression activity in the East Sea and landfalls in Vietnam are forecast to remain below the long-term average from September 2026 to February 2027.
Between September and November, three to five storms and tropical depressions are forecast in the East Sea, with one or two making landfall in Vietnam, below averages of 5.9 and 2.9, respectively.
From December to February, the long-term averages are 1.4 systems in the East Sea and 0.2 landfalls.
Since June, the East Sea has recorded five storms and two tropical depressions.
El Nino years typically bring fewer storms to the East Sea and fewer direct impacts on Vietnam, but storm-related risks can remain high. Authorities warned of potentially complex tracks and unusually strong or erratic storms.
The weather agency said seasonal forecasts indicate broad trends and warned that climate change is making weather increasingly complex and extreme, including intense short-duration rainfall, flash floods and landslides.
It advised closely following one- to three-day forecasts to adjust production and disaster-response plans, particularly reservoir operations and downstream safety.