Durian has become one of Vietnam's most profitable crops in recent years, at times generating more than VND 1 billion (USD 37,300) per hectare for farmers. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said durian was among the country's high-value crops, accounting for 45 per cent of total fruit and vegetable export revenue in 2025.
Since Vietnam began officially exporting durians to China in July 2022, export earnings have risen sharply.
Durian exports were worth just USD 180 million in 2021 but reached USD 3.86 billion in 2025, an increase of more than 2,000 per cent.
The boom in exports has been accompanied by rapid expansion in both cultivation area and output. Ministry data show that durian was grown on about 85,000 hectares in 2021, producing roughly 674,000 tonnes.
By 2026, the cultivated area had surged to 200,000 hectares, with output estimated at 2.08 million tonnes.
Only about 129,500 hectares are currently producing fruit, however. With an average yield of 16 tonnes per hectare, output could exceed 3.2 million tonnes once all 200,000 hectares reach full production.
In less than five years since Vietnam gained approval to officially export durians to China, the cultivated area has increased 2.4-fold while output has nearly tripled.
In the first six months of this year, durian exports were worth nearly USD 951 million, up 31 per cent from the same period last year. China alone accounted for USD 871.8 million, an increase of 36.9 per cent.
By the end of July, Vietnam had harvested 768,000 tonnes of durians, with another 1.31 million tonnes expected to be harvested during the final five months of the year.
The Central Highlands is expected to account for about 850,000 tonnes, with the peak harvest running from August to October.
Oversupply and falling prices
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment acknowledged that the rapid expansion of durian cultivation had been partly spontaneous in some localities.
The imbalance between the growth in cultivated area and output and the industry's capacity to organise and manage the supply chain is increasing the risk of technical violations, rejected shipments, weaker competitiveness and lost markets, the ministry said.
Without coordinated measures, the durian industry could face oversupply, falling prices, higher costs and declining credibility in international markets, it warned.
Vietnamese durians are currently exported to 21 countries and territories, but China accounts for about 90 per cent of export volumes.
The fruit is facing increasingly fierce competition in the Chinese market from producers in Thailand and Malaysia, as well as newer suppliers including the Philippines and Cambodia.
Heavy dependence on the Chinese market also leaves Vietnamese exporters more exposed to changes in policy, technical requirements and trading conditions.
The ministry has urged local authorities to review and closely manage durian-growing areas and discourage expansion outside regions with suitable growing conditions.
Instead, authorities should focus on improving productivity, quality and production efficiency while linking cultivation more closely with supply chains and market demand.