Super Typhoon Bavi is expected to remain outside the East Sea, but its immense circulation is forecast to generate hazardous marine conditions across the region over the coming days, Vietnam's national weather agency said on July 9.
According to the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the storm continued moving west-northwest overnight and into Thursday morning at about 20 km/h. At 7 am on July 9, Bavi remained a Category 16 super typhoon, with gusts exceeding Category 17.
The centre said the storm was about 810 km east of Luzon Island in the Philippines, around 1,100 km south-east of Taiwan, and roughly 1,400 km south-east of Fujian Province in China.
Typhoon Bavi remains at super typhoon strength (Photo: Disaster monitoring system).
Forecasters expect Bavi to continue moving north-west at around 20 km/h over the next 24 hours while maintaining super typhoon strength. By around July 10, it is forecast to pass north of Taiwan, weakening to Category 15 with gusts still exceeding Category 17.
The storm is then expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of Fujian Province on the afternoon or evening of July 11 with winds of Category 13 to 14, before weakening as it moves inland.
Vietnam's Meteorological and Hydrological Administration said the likelihood of Bavi entering the East Sea remains very low. However, because of its exceptional intensity, the storm is expected to significantly influence weather conditions over the sea.
From July 9, south-westerly winds are forecast to strengthen to Force 6 over the southern East Sea, including waters around the Truong Sa Archipelago. Between July 10 and July 11, winds across the northern, central and southern East Sea, including waters surrounding the Hoang Sa Archipelago and Truong Sa Archipelago, could increase to Force 6 to 7, with waves reaching 3 to 5 metres and very rough sea conditions.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the typhoon season, the weather agency said El Nino conditions are expected to reduce the number of tropical cyclones over the East Sea to around eight to 10 this year, below the long-term average. Of those, three to five are forecast to affect Vietnam's mainland, with most expected to occur between July and September in northern Vietnam and between October and November in central Vietnam. Southern Vietnam could also be affected later in the year.