According to the World Bank's annual country classification released on July 1, Vietnam's gross national income (GNI) per capita rose from USD 4,490 in 2024 to USD 4,970 in 2025, lifting the country from the lower-middle-income to the upper-middle-income category.
The World Bank has placed Vietnam in the upper-middle-income country group (Photo: WB report).
The World Bank attributed the upgrade to Vietnam's robust economic performance and export growth. Exports expanded by more than 15 per cent between 2024 and 2025, while the country's GNI recorded average annual growth of 10 per cent over the 2021-2025 period.
The World Bank described Vietnam as "one of the strongest performers in terms of sustained economic growth in the region".
Vietnam was one of five countries promoted from the lower-middle-income category this year, alongside the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Jordan and Micronesia.
The World Bank classifies economies annually based on gross national income per capita in the previous year, adjusted for exchange rate movements. Countries are grouped into four income categories: low, lower middle, upper middle and high income economies.
For the 2026-2030 period, Vietnam has set a target of achieving average annual GDP growth of at least 10 per cent as it seeks to consolidate its upper-middle-income status, build a modern industrial economy and rank among the world's 30 largest economies by 2030.
The World Bank forecasts Vietnam's economy will expand by 6.8 per cent in 2026, with inflation projected at 4.2 per cent. It also warned that conflict in the Middle East could pose risks to trade, fuel prices and business activity.
Meanwhile, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) has maintained its forecast of 7 per cent GDP growth for Vietnam in 2026, saying the economy continues to demonstrate resilience despite mounting external pressures. The bank cautioned, however, that inflation, exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in global energy prices remain key risks.
In its latest report, Standard Chartered said Vietnam's economy maintained solid momentum during the first half of 2026, forecasting year-on-year growth of around 6.5 per cent.
The bank noted that while economic activity is returning to a more normal pace amid increasing volatility in global markets, rising prices and changes in international trade, Vietnam's strong macroeconomic fundamentals continue to provide a solid foundation for sustainable growth.