The Department of Plant Production and Protection said weather conditions had affected the entire growth cycle, from flower bud formation to fruit development, reducing yields across major growing areas.
In Bac Ninh Province, the country’s largest lychee-growing region, output is forecast at about 95,000 tonnes from 29,800 hectares, roughly half last year’s level and just 60 per cent of the original target.
Production in Haiphong is also expected to decline, with output projected at 55,000 tonnes from 9,345 hectares, while smaller producing areas such as Hung Yen and Dak Lak are unlikely to significantly offset the shortfall.
Flowering rates have fallen markedly this season, with early-season lychee trees recording around 60 per cent flowering and main-crop varieties only 40-50 per cent, well below last year’s levels.
Tighter supply has pushed prices sharply higher, with early-harvest lychees being contracted at around VND 40,000 (USD 1.5) per kilogramme, while premium white u trung lychees have reached as much as VND 120,000 per kilogramme, a record level in recent years.
Export demand remains strong despite lower domestic output, particularly from high-standard markets such as Japan and Europe, exporters said.
Ameii Vietnam JSC said it planned to purchase 2.5 times more lychees for export than last year and would pay growers 10-20 per cent above market prices.
Agricultural officials urged farmers to intensify orchard management to reduce fruit drop and cracking, warning that alternating rain and sunshine in coming weeks could further affect fruit quality.
Authorities said the lychee sector should be restructured over the longer term through improved traceability, more transparent supply chains and diversified harvest schedules to reduce reliance on volatile bumper-crop cycles.