Middle East an important market for farm exports
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the Middle East has strong demand for imported food and is becoming an increasingly important market for Vietnamese agricultural products.
In 2025, Vietnam’s agricultural exports to the region reached around USD 1.2 billion, up 22.5 per cent from 2024. The United Arab Emirates alone accounted for more than USD 445 million, rising nearly 24 per cent, with key products including cashew nuts, pepper, rice and fruits and vegetables.
In the seafood sector, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers reported exports to the Middle East totalled USD 401 million in 2025, up 9.6 per cent year on year and nearly double the figure recorded in 2020.
Pangasius was the largest export item at USD 175.9 million, followed by Tuna at about USD 94.4 million and Shrimp at more than USD 54 million. Pangasius and tuna together accounted for roughly 70 per cent of Vietnam’s seafood exports to the region.
Beyond seafood, the Middle East is also a major market for Vietnamese pepper, spices, cashews and fruits.
According to Le Viet Anh, the region accounts for about 15 per cent of Vietnam’s total pepper and spice exports, equivalent to 35,000–40,000 tonnes annually.
Vietnamese cashew exports are also shipped to markets such as Israel, Jordan and Turkey, largely through the Suez Canal and Red Sea shipping corridor.
As the Middle East accounts for a growing share of Vietnam’s export markets, geopolitical instability in the region not only affects consumption but also disrupts the international transport networks on which agricultural and seafood industries rely.
Logistics disruptions affecting exporters
According to VASEP, the most immediate impact on the seafood sector has been rising shipping costs as some carriers limit voyages through high-risk areas.
Many vessels are now rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea-Suez Canal route. The detour adds 7-14 days to transit times, increasing fuel costs and causing shortages of containers, particularly refrigerated units used for seafood exports.
Freight rates on the Asia-Dubai route have nearly doubled, while war-risk surcharges have risen to USD 1,500-4,000 per container.
For seafood exporters, these additional costs directly raise production expenses. Since export contracts are often signed in advance, companies have limited flexibility to adjust prices.
VASEP warned that the biggest risks include potential disruptions to the cold chain, shortages of refrigerated containers and delayed deliveries that could lead to contract violations.
The tuna industry faces further pressure as rising oil prices push up fishing costs. Raw tuna prices in Bangkok are currently fluctuating between USD 1,500 and USD 1,700 per tonne, with an upward trend as supply tightens.
These increases are raising processing and export costs and reducing profit margins for businesses.
The impact extends beyond seafood. The Middle East lies along key maritime routes linking Asia with Europe and North Africa, meaning disruptions to shipping corridors are affecting many of Vietnam’s major export commodities.
Products such as tuna, pepper, cashews and fresh fruits are facing higher logistics, insurance and delivery costs, particularly for contracts with fixed prices and delivery schedules.
Diversifying markets to reduce risks
Tran Gia Long said the ministry has developed preliminary scenarios to assess the potential impact of Middle East tensions on Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports.
If the conflict lasts about one month, total export turnover for the sector could fall by around USD 1 billion. If tensions persist for three months, losses could reach USD 3-3.5 billion.
Exports to the Middle East alone could decline by USD 500-600 million, while shipments to Europe could drop by USD 1-1.6 billion and exports to North Africa could fall by USD 200-250 million.
Should tensions continue for longer, exports to the Middle East could face intermittent disruptions, while shipments to Europe and North Africa could decline by up to 50 per cent.
The ministry said it will closely monitor developments while preparing plans to adjust export structures and diversify markets to minimise risks.
Meanwhile, VASEP recommended that seafood exporters closely track shipping conditions, fuel prices and maritime insurance policies.
Companies should coordinate with partners and shipping lines to adjust delivery schedules, prepare alternative transport options, review contract terms, secure adequate insurance coverage and diversify export markets to mitigate risks.