Exporters worry over shipments
Speaking on March 2, Ta Quang Huyen, General Director of Hoang Son 1 JSC in Dong Nai Province, said several of the company’s cashew export containers are en route to Middle Eastern markets.
Recent military tensions involving Israel, the US and Iran have raised concerns that maritime transport could be disrupted. Vietnam exports significant volumes of cashew nuts to Jordan, Israel and Türkiye, while Iran and the UAE are smaller markets for the sector.
Processing cashews for export at Hoang Son 1 Joint Stock Company, Dong Nai Province (Photo: Huan Tran).
Most shipments pass through the Suez Canal-Red Sea corridor, a key artery for Asia-Europe trade. If risks escalate, shipping lines may be forced to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, extending transit times by 8-10 days.
War risk insurance premiums would also surge, significantly increasing logistics costs, which currently account for 10-20 per cent of export prices for shipments to the Middle East. These costs could climb an additional 15-25 per cent if tensions persist.
Huyen noted that most Vietnamese cashew exports to the region are conducted under FOB terms, meaning exporters receive payment once goods leave Vietnamese ports, limiting their exposure. In contrast, exporters using CIF terms would bear higher risks if deliveries are delayed or rejected.
Vietnam's cashew exports to Middle Eastern markets have grown significantly in recent years (Photo: Huan Tran).
Seafood exports hit by instability
The Middle East has been a fast-growing market for Vietnam’s seafood industry. Between 2020 and 2024, seafood export turnover to the region nearly doubled from US$198 million to US$366 million.
Tuna and pangasius account for about 70 per cent of export value, with canned and pouched tuna in oil or brine particularly popular. In 2024 alone, exports were estimated at more than USD 360 million, with strong growth in Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
However, geopolitical instability since early 2025 has weighed heavily on shipments. According to Vietnam Customs data, tuna exports to the region in the first eight months of 2025 fell 23 per cent year-on-year to nearly USD 60 million. Exports to Israel dropped 48 per cent, Lebanon 9 per cent, Jordan 37 per cent and Saudi Arabia 63 per cent.
Nguyen Hoai Nam, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said regional conflict and soaring freight costs due to instability in the Red Sea are the core causes behind declining orders.
The Middle East is also a major market for Vietnamese seafood (Photo: Huan Tran).
Risk of empty container shortages
Bach Khanh Nhut, Standing Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas), said Middle Eastern markets have recently posted notable growth in Vietnamese cashew imports. Alongside the Netherlands, the region has been among the fastest-growing markets in 2025.
Dubai serves as a major gateway and ranks as Vietnam’s third-largest cashew importer after China and the US. Rising food stockpiling amid regional instability has supported demand for dried food products such as cashews.
Nhut cautioned that if conflict is resolved quickly, trade impacts would be limited. However, prolonged tensions would severely affect agricultural exports, as businesses could struggle to secure shipping services to Africa and face soaring freight rates that erode profit margins.
Huyen expressed particular concern over importing raw cashews from Africa for processing. Seven of his company’s staff have safely arrived in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire to begin procurement. Had they departed a day later, travel plans might have been disrupted by the strikes.
If shipping routes are diverted, longer transit times would delay container turnaround cycles, potentially leading to severe shortages of empty containers for imports from Africa to Vietnam and disrupting production plans for the new season.
Air cargo disruptions
Fresh fruit and vegetable exporters are also worried that transport delays could compromise product quality.
Air cargo operations have been affected as well. Several flights have been cancelled, including regular cargo services by Qatar Airways linking Hanoi and Doha, with no confirmed date for resumption.
In response, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit) has advised businesses to proactively adjust transport plans and, if necessary, renegotiate delivery terms with partners to avoid contract breaches.