In its three-month outlook for February to April 2026, the institute said current atmospheric and oceanic conditions indicate La Nina remains in place, but there is more than an 85 per cent chance ENSO will shift to neutral during the period.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to above the long-term average in northern Vietnam, and near average in central and southern regions.
The winter monsoon is expected to be broadly in line with historical norms, with severe cold spells mainly confined to the first half of February. Frost and ice may occur in northern mountainous areas, before cold air activity gradually weakens.
Rainfall over the next three months is projected to be below to near average in the north, near average in central Vietnam, and near to above average in the south.
Drought conditions in the Central Highlands and southern regions in early 2026 are expected to be less severe, with the possibility of unseasonal rains easing dry conditions.
The institute said the likelihood of tropical cyclones forming in the East Sea during the period remains low.