The Asian Development Bank has raised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast to 6.7 per cent in 2025. (Illustrative image)
The bank has also maintained its 6 per cent growth outlook for 2026 in its Asian Development Outlook - September 2025 released on September 30.
At the press briefing on Vietnam’s economic prospects for 2025 held in Hanoi the same day, ADB representatives said that the Government of Vietnam is rolling out fiscal and monetary stimulus packages, aiming for an ambitious growth target of 8.3-8.5 per cent in 2025. However, the economy still faces risks from reciprocal tariffs, rising trade protectionism, and global as well as regional geopolitical tensions.
According to ADB, the surge in exports during the first half of 2025, prior to the US tariffs taking effect, together with government support measures, has been key to sustaining growth momentum. Yet, growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year once the new tariffs come into force. This could directly affect exports, investment inflows, and service industries such as logistics, finance, and business services.
Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, stressed that better coordination between fiscal and monetary policy is critical to avoid excessive pressure on lending rates and credit while ensuring macroeconomic stability. In the longer term, Vietnam should pursue comprehensive institutional and legal reforms focusing on structural issues, including enhancing private sector competitiveness; improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises; modernising the tax system; and accelerating digital transformation and strengthening climate resilience.
ADB warned that US tariffs, about 20 per cent on imports and 40 per cent on transshipped goods, pose a significant short-term challenge to Vietnam’s trade and investment. Should these tariffs persist, they could dampen growth in 2026, particularly in higher-value service sectors.
Nguyen Ba Hung, ADB’s Chief Economist in Vietnam, noted that effective public investment is “key” to both stimulating growth and addressing infrastructure bottlenecks. With public debt currently at under 34 per cent of GDP, far below the statutory ceiling of 60 per cent, Vietnam still has ample fiscal space for additional growth-support measures.
He suggested that the Government could consider policies such as targeted tax cuts; lowering compliance costs for businesses; and expanding social spending for low-income households.
According to ADB, inflation is projected at 3.9 per cent in 2025, easing slightly to 3.8 per cent in 2026. The decline in global energy prices has helped lower transportation costs - a component that accounts for a significant share in the consumer price basket.
However, continuous upward adjustments in healthcare, education, and electricity prices by the Government are expected to keep inflationary pressures in place. Accelerated public investment disbursement and strong credit growth could also drive up the prices of materials and services.
ADB said that while Vietnam’s economic outlook for 2025-2026 remains broadly positive thanks to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, deeper structural reforms are needed to build a more balanced growth model, reduce reliance on exports, and strengthen domestic demand to better withstand external shocks.