In the early months of 2025, a decline in supply drove global coffee prices to record highs, repeatedly reaching their highest levels in years. This surge helped Vietnam's coffee exports exceed USD 1 billion in a month for the first time.
A new milestone in coffee exports
Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), revealed that Vietnam exported 193,031 tonnes of coffee in February, generating more than USD1.08 billion. This marks the first time the country's coffee exports have surpassed the USD1 billion milestone in a month.
This achievement was driven by high export volumes and soaring coffee prices, which averaged USD5,596 per tonne.
In the first two months of the year, Vietnam exported 343,331 tonnes of coffee, generating more than USD1.87 billion. Of this, green coffee bean exports accounted for 315,615 tonnes, bringing in over USD 1.65 billion. While export volume decreased by 14.8 percent compared to last year's period, revenue surged by 50 percent.
Global coffee prices have also continued to rise. Robusta coffee (London) for March 2025 delivery increased by USD111 per tonne to USD5,597 per tonne, while May 2025 contracts rose by USD102 per tonne to USD5,546 per tonne.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee (New York) for March 2025 delivery climbed by 10.8 cents per pound to 397.45 cents per pound, with May 2025 contracts rising by 8.55 cents per pound to 386.75 cents per pound.
VICOFA predicts that coffee prices will remain high throughout the year.
One key factor driving this price increase is the weakening of the US dollar, which has hit its lowest level since February. Additionally, strong purchasing activity from financial investors on the exchanges has further pushed prices higher.
According to a Reuters survey, Robusta prices could reach USD 5,500 per tonne, while Arabica prices may surpass 400 cents per pound if the upward trend continues.
Opportunities for Vietnamese coffee
This year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has set a target for total coffee production to reach 1.98 million tonnes, slightly higher than last year. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will rise by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million bags, thanks to improved supply. Amidst a global shortage pushing coffee prices higher, Vietnam's ability to maintain output presents significant opportunities for its coffee industry.
Reuters reports that Brazil is experiencing one of its most severe droughts in history, severely impacting coffee production. The supply shortfall has nearly depleted Brazil's coffee reserves, with high prices prompting warehouses to sell off almost all of their stock from the previous harvest.
In February, Germany, Italy, and Japan were Vietnam's top three coffee export markets, accounting for 16.6 percent, 9.4 percent, and 8.2 percent of total exports, respectively. Compared to the same period last year, export value to Germany surged by 53 percent, while Italy and Japan saw increases of 5.6 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.
Recently, Vietnam's Trade Office in Algeria noted that the country has significant export potential to Algeria, where Vietnamese coffee is highly regarded for its quality and flavour.
Algeria does not cultivate coffee, so it relies entirely on imports to meet domestic demand. Coffee is the most popular beverage in Algeria, and with a population of over 46 million, the country imports approximately 130,000 tonnes of coffee beans annually, valued at around USD300 million.
According to Vietnam's General Department of Customs, in 2024, Vietnamese enterprises exported 34,158 tonnes of green coffee beans to Algeria, generating USD127.4 million in revenue.